ECO FORECASTING
The first part of the project is essentially what I requested for a proposal that is included in Assignment 3. In this portion of the project (you may call it introduction) the purpose of the project — to develop the best quarterly forecast of your assigned company revenue. In this introduction you will need to state your logic relative to why you chose the X variables and demonstrate their linear relationships with the revenue variable (Y). Support this logic with scatter plots and a correlation matrix. Then you should discuss the characteristics of the Y data — T, C or S that you have in the Y variable along with basic statistics.
The introduction should be followed by a section for each of the forecast methods. You need to have one section each for Exponential Smoothing using the work in Assignment 4, Decomposition using the work in Assignment 5, ARIMA using the work in Assignment 6 and finally a section on Multiple Regression using the work in Assignment 7. You should change my questions in the assignments to statements that are followed by your answers to make the project easier to follow. Each section should have discussion of only the best model using the method accompanied by error measures (RMSE and MAPE) for fit and forecast as well as residual analysis for the fit and forecast. Remember, only show the single best model with each method and do not show model failures.
Finally, you need to write a summary section that includes a table of fit and forecast RMSE and MAPE. Choose the most accurate method and model in the table (the lowest MAPE and RMSE for the forecast period). Again, the project is your write up supported by Minitab results to determine the best revenue forecast for your assigned company.
You should have an Appendix with each data series that you used in the project to support your work. All X variables (excluding dummy variables and counters) should have citations. There is a description in Doc Sharing for the project. You may include an abstract or executive summary at the front of the project before the introduction as well.
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