risk simulation assignment with risk
Excel analysis
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ICG, Inc has been struggling to launch a new product for the past 12 months. Given the info below, what is the uncertainty distribution of the expected revenues of a new product? |
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The average price for the product can be minimally $10, most likely $12 and maximally $15. |
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Sales may be between 1,000 and 100,000 products, with most likely sales of 30,000. |
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Use the regular PERT distributions (see a description of the Pert distribution in @Risk) to determine:
1.Average expected total revenue
2.What is the probability that expected revenue will be less than $123,123
3.What is the probability that expected revenue will be higher than $800,000 |
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OBS: Simulation settings: 5,000 iterations
Sampling Type: = Latin Hypercube
Initial Seed Fixed =123
RGN = Mersenne Twister
Multiple simulations All use same seeds
4. What is the difference between choosing static values or random values for distribution returns when a simulation is not running?
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